Henry Ford said “Ask people what they want and they’ll say a faster horse.” And he was talking about AI. There are currently no signs of AI paying off outside of the tech sector. And putting two and two together, in my conversations, it’s because AI can’t innovate. Incremental gains on existing initiatives are the best it can do. And as companies have been laying people off and replacing with AI, which in some cases is cheaper, those same companies are also experiencing slowing revenue growth in a lot of cases.
So you end up in a death spiral. You cut more costs to save money, and revenue goes down to offset. Ending up in the exact same situation financially, but with no way out because AI can’t come up with a solution to get you back on track. I’m recalling another car-related story from Toyota, where they incentivize their employees to come up with innovative ideas. One of their employees noticed that during breaks, everyone gathered in break rooms, leaving the factory floor empty, but well lit. The employee suggested turning off the factory lights during lunch, and it saved millions of dollars a year.
AI is not going to see that, because it’s not linear, it’s not direct, it doesn’t make any sense from the outside looking in. You would only see it if you were making connections between things that seemingly aren’t connected.
A data scientist at a large tech company also once told me that data can help you make incremental gains, but the big jumps always come from human innovation. The “gut” signals. I find it deeply ironic that there is literally a billboard I walk past every day on my way to Trader Joe’s in San Francisco with a cartoon gut and a sign that reads “gut signals are bad” telling people they should let AI make the decisions instead.
Where will this lead? if Henry Ford was right, to a bunch of “faster horses” which isn’t actually possible. It will lead to every company trying to do the same, obvious things, better. Only problem is there isn’t a way to do those things better, and people will be stuck trying to manufacture faster horses.
Meanwhile, someone using their brain will come along and look at the same problems the AI is stuck on. They’ll interview customers and talk to people in the space, and come up with something different, better, unique, and win the market. This is my prediction for how this all plays out. A bunch of copycats going after the same faster horse, losing money on tokens along the way. A few thinkers who come along, who albeit still use AI, but as a tool, not as a decision maker. Those people will leapfrog.
